BRICS+ group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, alongside a handful of newly integrated nations, is on the brink of a historic economic shift.
By 2026, BRICS+ is projected to outpace the G7 in global trade, marking a turning point that underscores the rise of emerging economies. This anticipated transition highlights the growing influence of nations like India, China, and South Africa, which have become central to the reshaping of global economic dynamics. The rise of BRICS+ is not merely a numerical shift; it symbolizes a broader economic realignment that challenges the Western-centric economic framework dominated by the G7 nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Over the past decade, the BRICS nations have been building momentum in trade and economic cooperation, contributing significantly to global growth and development. With economies like China and India leading the charge, BRICS+ has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to drive international trade, investments, and industrial expansion. While China continues to be a dominant force within BRICS+, India’s emergence as a tech and manufacturing hub, along with Brazil and South Africa’s resource-rich economies, positions the bloc as a formidable player in the global market. This rise has been fuelled by consistent efforts to deepen economic ties among member states, prioritize trade agreements, and establish alternative financial institutions that provide alternatives to Western-dominated entities like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The shift in global trade dynamics as BRICS+ grows in influence is reflective of changing geopolitical landscapes. For years, the G7 has been the standard-bearer of global economic governance, dictating trade rules and financial practices that have shaped the global economy. However, the increasing weight of BRICS+ in international trade is gradually altering the balance of power. By 2026, BRICS+ nations are expected to control a larger share of global trade, a development that speaks to the bloc’s increasing economic clout. This expansion is underpinned by a collective strategy to challenge Western financial hegemony, boost mutual investments, and diversify economic ties. The economic rise of BRICS+ is also expected to foster greater collaboration among developing economies, particularly in sectors like technology, energy, and infrastructure, thus creating a multipolar economic order that contrasts with the historically dominant unipolar frameworks.
One of the key factors driving BRICS+ towards surpassing the G7 is the rapid economic expansion in Asia, particularly in China and India. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has established itself as a global manufacturing powerhouse, while India’s technology and services sector continues to expand at a rapid pace. Together, these nations represent a significant portion of global economic output. Their efforts to reduce dependency on Western economies, diversify trading partners, and invest heavily in infrastructure and technology have contributed to the bloc’s economic growth. Meanwhile, Brazil and South Africa, as key suppliers of commodities, provide the raw materials necessary to fuel industrialization in Asia. Russia’s vast energy resources have also become increasingly pivotal, particularly as global energy demands shift and nations seek reliable alternatives to traditional Western suppliers.
The growth trajectory of BRICS+ is supported by a strategic realignment of trade routes and economic partnerships. The New Development Bank, an initiative spearheaded by BRICS, has been pivotal in financing infrastructure and sustainable development projects in member countries, reducing reliance on Western financial institutions. This bank provides an alternative funding mechanism that aligns with the interests of emerging economies, focusing on projects that foster development and connectivity within the BRICS+ sphere. Additionally, BRICS+ members have been pursuing bilateral trade agreements that bypass traditional Western-dominated trade channels. This effort to create an independent economic framework has been bolstered by initiatives to strengthen local currencies and reduce the dominance of the US dollar in international trade.
Energy is another sector where BRICS+ is making significant strides. As the world transitions towards cleaner energy sources, BRICS+ nations are positioning themselves as key players in the green energy landscape. China is the global leader in renewable energy production, with significant investments in solar and wind power, while Brazil has made substantial progress in biofuels. Russia continues to be a major supplier of fossil fuels, but it is also investing in nuclear and hydropower, seeking to diversify its energy mix. India, meanwhile, is rapidly expanding its solar power capacity and has become a hub for innovation in sustainable energy technology. These developments in the energy sector are not only reducing dependence on traditional fossil fuel markets but are also creating new economic opportunities within BRICS+.
The anticipated rise of BRICS+ over the G7 also has implications for global supply chains. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the vulnerabilities of Western-centric supply chains were exposed, prompting many nations to rethink their dependency on traditional trade partners. BRICS+ has capitalized on this shift, with China and India leading the way in developing resilient supply chains that are less vulnerable to disruptions. This trend towards diversification is likely to accelerate as BRICS+ nations continue to invest in critical infrastructure, logistics, and technology that enable more efficient and secure trade. These investments not only strengthen intra-BRICS+ ties but also attract external partners seeking to engage with a more diversified and robust economic network.
Politically, the growing economic influence of BRICS+ is expected to impact global governance structures. As BRICS+ nations gain economic power, they are likely to demand a more significant voice in international institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund. This push for greater representation aligns with the bloc’s desire to reshape global financial and trade rules in ways that reflect the interests of emerging economies. By challenging the status quo, BRICS+ is advocating for a more equitable global economic system that does not solely favor the traditional powerhouses of the G7. This shift could lead to changes in how international economic policies are crafted, moving towards a more inclusive framework that considers the perspectives of a broader range of nations.
While the rise of BRICS+ presents numerous opportunities, it is not without challenges. Internal differences among member countries, such as varying political systems, economic structures, and developmental priorities, pose obstacles to achieving cohesive economic strategies. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and India, have the potential to disrupt the unity of the bloc. The integration of new members into BRICS+ also requires careful navigation to ensure that the expanded group remains effective in promoting its collective interests. However, the shared objective of reducing Western dependency and fostering economic resilience acts as a unifying force that helps mitigate these challenges.
In conclusion, the expected surpassing of the G7 by BRICS+ by 2026 represents a fundamental shift in global economic power. It reflects the rise of emerging economies that are determined to assert their influence in international markets, offering alternative economic pathways to traditional Western-led frameworks. The growing importance of nations like India, China, and South Africa highlights a new era of economic multipolarity, where diverse economies play a crucial role in shaping the future of global trade. As BRICS+ continues to expand its economic footprint, it is poised to not only alter the dynamics of international trade but also to influence the direction of global economic governance in the years to come. This shift may mark the beginning of a more balanced and inclusive economic order, where the voices and interests of emerging economies are given greater prominence in shaping the global landscape.
